Anil Anand

The elections in India are all about perceptions, among other things. There are strategies to develop perceptions and there are counter-strategies by the rivals to demolish these notions or perceptions.

Never before anyone had been in the crossfire of this perception warfare, so aggressively and vigorously and at times crossing limits of decency, as former Congress president Rahul Gandhi. Fact of the matter is that he has been the target of the crossfire aimed at building and demolishing the perceptions. The demolition brigade (read BJP) in his case has been much stronger and well-equipped and persistently dictating and setting the narrative. Till Mr Gandhi, though belatedly, and his strategists decided to give it back. For the first time, before the start of 2024 Lok Sabha polls, in the last decade the Congress has been seen setting the agenda, forcing BJP to follow.

Now that the debate over whether Mr Gandhi will contest from family pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rai Bareli has been settled, the entire episode since his defeat from Amethi in 2019 Lok Sabha elections has to be viewed from the perspective of war of perceptions. The latest round in this war has gone to Mr Gandhi. No doubt the battle is tough and the road ahead is bumpy.

By deciding to choose Rai Bareli, comparatively a safer seat, over Amethi, Mr Gandhi has pulled a faster one, on Mr Narendra Modi-led BJP. It is a big surprise not only for team Modi particularly Women and Child Development Minister and BJP’s candidate from Amethi Mrs Smriti Zubin Irani who was all prepared to take-on Mr Gandhi, but also for Congress watchers and political observers. Of course, public at large was too taken by surprise.

The other point of discussion during the past few months particularly in the media was whether Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will take her maiden plunge into electoral politics, replacing her mother Sonia Gandhi in Rai Bareli, or not. If Mr Gandhi’s decision to select Rai Bareli as the second constituency after Wayanad in Kerala, was unexpected for some, particularly in the rival camp, his sister deciding to opt out equally stumped the political opponents.

In the midst of four-phases of low voter turnout elections with Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi shifting goalpost by every phase and changing political dialogue, the Congress through the Gandhis’ latest Amethi-Rai Bareli centric decisions has not only set but forced the BJP strategists to follow the narrative. Not only is Mr Gandhi’s decision to opt for Rai Bareli as the second seat to contest Lok Sabha election from Hindi or Cow-belt, is a master-stroke, but equally significant has been the fielding of a family loyalist and old Amethi-Rai Bareli hand, K L Sharma from Amethi to challenge Mrs Irani.

The earlier narrative was what if Mrs Irani defeated Mr Gandhi a second time around. This would have dealt a deadly blow to Congress and question mark on Mr Gandhi’s political career. Now the changed narrative is what if Mr Sharma defeats the high-profile BJP nominee. Having overseen poll management both in Amethi and Rai Bareli for the last 40 years, he is no underdog.

No one had any clue till the last on how the Amethi-Rai Bareli chapter would unfold. Strategically, which is a rarity in Congress, the party’s poll planners kept the cards close to their chest while their BJP counterparts harped on preparing to corner Mr Gandhi in Amethi. A strong indication to this effect is the fact that Mrs Irani has constructed a new house in the constituency and has been camping in the area for quite some time, waiting to take on Mr Gandhi. The garrulous BJP leader had been persistently trying to surcharge the atmosphere by targeting him on even a smaller pretext. But to no avail.

There is no doubt Amethi has become a difficult seat for the Gandhi-clan after Mr Rahul Gandhi’s defeat in 2019. And there is no doubt that Rai Bareli is comparatively a safer seat and traditionally a stronghold of the Gandhi-family. There is not an iota of doubt that these factors must have weighed heavily on the mind of Mr Gandhi and his advisors to decide in favour of Rai Bareli. However, it was the manner in which the entire episode was handled, to keep the rivals guessing, that at the end it has given advantage to Congress.

Rai Bareli certainly has benefits for Mr Gandhi. Firstly, it was represented by his mother Mrs Sonia Gandhi for 20 years and has been well looked after by her. In fact, it was the only seat that Congress could manage to win in 2019 Lok Sabha elections in the midst of sweeping Modi-wave. Barring on three occasions, after Independence the Congress has been continuously winning the seat. He has already described Rai Bareli as “karambhoomi” of the family.

Was avoiding contesting election either from Amethi or the family “karambhoomi” ever a choice for Mr Gandhi?

The answer is no and for various reasons. There is no doubt that Mrs Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had the luxury to say no to contesting election from either of the seat but not Mr Gandhi. It is due to the simple reason that for the last decade Mr Gandhi has been the face of the party and someone in whom Mr Modi and his party saw a potential challenger. That is why he has been going all out, even now, to attack, corner and criticize Mr Gandhi. On the contrary Mrs Vadra, though a front-ranking and impressive election campaigner for the party, has remained content to be in the backdrop and is still to contest her first election.

Mr Gandhi being face of the party and its de facto chief has a multiple role to perform. This situation warranted that he accepted the challenge and not leave the family stronghold vacant and uncontested. It would have sent a negative message had he decided against contesting either from Amethi or Rai Bareli.

His decision to contest from a seat in Uttar Pradesh is also central to Congress’s revival plans not only in this state but elsewhere in the central India or the Hindi-belt. Mr Gandhi’s absence from the area would have further demoralized the party rank and file whereas his entering the fray has an electrifying effect on them.

Mr Gandhi contesting from Rai Bareli could also be seen as a counter to the Congress and its top brass appearing too South-India heavy. As it is Mr Gandhi is seeking re-election from Wayanad in Kerala. The party president Mr Mallikarjun Kharge hails from Karnataka, while AICC general secretary (organization) Mr K C Venugopal also belongs to Kerala and is contesting election from the state.

Mr Gandhi, as face of the Congress, is in the midst of tackling what can be described as his toughest political challenge. He is fighting this battle in the backdrop of the fact that the party has suffered two humiliating successive Lok Sabha election defeats. It entails that he works to ensure that the tally of his party increased. Apart from the central role he is playing in campaigning for the party across India, his presence in Rai Bareli (Uttar Pradesh) will give a fillip to the I.N.D.I.A bloc of which Samajwadi Party is the senior party in the politically important state with 80 Lok Sabha seats.

Amethi and Rai Bareli are rightly described as the Congress stronghold. The party has won Amethi 15 out of 18 times and Rai Bareli 17 out of 20 times.

His defeat in Amethi has been described by many as sign of dwindling hold of the Congress and in particular Gandhi family over the area. Even Mrs Sonia Gandhi had won from Rai Bareli in 2019 with a decreased margin of over 1.50 lakh votes against BJP’s Dinesh Pratap Singh who incidentally is again contesting against her son.

Such a scenario made it more imperative that, if not both, at least Mr Rahul Gandhi contest from one of the two seats.

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