Vijay Hashia

India is set to experience another coalition government at the center. Despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) securing outright majorities in the past two elections, (2014, 2019), they fell short of the 272 seats needed for a majority this time. Consequently, they will rely on their pre-poll allies, including significant players like the Telugu Desam Party (TDP-16), led by Chandrababu Naidu; Janata Dal United (JDU-12), led by Nitish Kumar; Shiv Sena (SSH-7), led by Eknath Shinde; and Lok Janshakti Party (LJPRV-5), led by Chirag Paswan.

The 14 allies collectively bring in around 53 seats, pushing the BJP past the halfway mark but increasing the Government’s dependency on coalition partners. Coalition Governments have a storied history in independent India. In 1977, following the Emergency, a coalition emerged from the momentum generated by Jayaprakash Narayan’s Janata wave.

Eleven parties, including the BJP’s erstwhile, Bharatiya Jana Sangh, came together to form the Janata Government under Prime Minister Morarji Desai. This Government lasted for two years, 126 days until July 1979, when internal conflicts and dual loyalties among members led to its collapse.

Charan Singh, the only PM who did not face the parliament, capitalized on the situation by courting Indira Gandhi’s Congress (I) Party, becoming Prime Minister with their support. However, his tenure was short-lived, as Congress (I) withdrew their support after just 170 days.

The National Front coalition led by V.P. Singh in 1989 also faced turbulence. Singh’s government, marred by the Mandal Commission recommendations, the kidnapping of Rubaiya Sayeed, and the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits, saw the BJP withdraw its support, leading to its downfall after 343 days.

Similarly, Chandra Shekhar’s Government, supported externally by Congress (I), lasted for 223 days before internal strife and the 1991 economic crisis led to its demise.

In 1996, the BJP emerged as the largest party but could not form a stable government. Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s first tenure government lasted just 13 days due to a lack of majority support. The United Front, a coalition of non-Congress and non-BJP regional parties, then formed the Government under H.D. Deve Gowda.

His tenure lasted 324 days before Congress withdrew support, leading to his defeat in a trust vote. I.K. Gujral succeeded him, but his Government also collapsed after 332 days when Congress withdrew support over allegations involving the DMK in Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination.

Vajpayee, returned in the second tenure, as Prime Minister in 1998, heading a NDA coalition with parties like the Shiromani Akali Dal, Samta Party, AIADMK, BJD and others. However, this Government too collapsed after 13 months due to the withdrawal of support by AIADMK. Fresh elections in 1999 saw the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secure a decisive majority, following the Kargil War.

The BJP won on 182 seats, and the NDA coalition secured a majority, enabling Vajpayee’s adept leadership and inclusive persona to make him the first non-congress Prime Minister to complete a full five year term, providing significant lessons in coalition politics.

In the 2004 and 2009 elections, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) governed as a coalition. It wasn’t until 2014 that a single party, the BJP, again secured a majority, winning 282 seats. They returned to power in 2019 with 303 seats, with national security becoming a key issue following the Pulwama attack. However, in the 2024 elections, the BJP fell short of a majority and will once again need to rely on coalition partners like TDP, JD (U), and others.

The term “coalition dharma,” coined by Vajpayee, refers to respecting coalition partners. This principle will be crucial as the BJP navigates its dependency on allies now. The Shiromani Akali Dal and Shiv Sena, two of BJP’s oldest allies, quit the NDA after the 2019 elections, but the BJP didn’t need their support due to their majority.

The 2024 scenario is different, requiring support from over two dozen parties to counter the Opposition INDIA bloc, a conglomeration of 26 parties which includes two national and 24 regional parties.

The upcoming term, therefore, presents itself as a true litmus test for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies, as the formidable opposition will continue and persist in presenting vociferous debates, potentially leading to a significant surge of frequent pandemonium, filibustering alongside of horse trading.

This scenario demands a high level counter political strategy, sagacity and partnership, reminiscent of Vajpayee’s era, where ‘Coalition Dharma,’ the principle of giving due respect and consideration to coalition partner was paramount. This approach aimed to foster cooperation and unity within the coalition government by prioritizing consensus building, inclusivity and dialogue.

Vajpayee believed in accommodating diverse viewpoints and ensuring that coalition partners felt valued and heard. His strategy focused on creating a conducive environment for effective governance while acknowledging the distinct interests and ideologies of each coalition member.