Ashis Biswas

At the end of the bitterest general elections in recent times, it is only in Assam that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition, the Congress, are broadly satisfied with the outcome. The BJP won 11 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats while the badly divided, and always under-estimated Congress, swept the remaining three seats, surprising analysts and defying conventional wisdom.

The electoral battle in Assam, where multiple regional/tribal parties and outfits contested hard to win seats, was dominated by the two biggest national parties. In the process, Assam’s direct influence in the overall context of national politics has increased, with the state’s leaders poised to play a significant role, both within India’s ruling dispensation and in the opposition.

For the moment, however, it is safe to assert that the hold on the Assam electorate of regional parties, like the AGP, the AASU and more recent outfits like the Asom Jatiya Parishad, all sworn to protect native Assamiya interests, has been overshadowed by compulsions of a greater engagement in the national political process.

This is not to suggest that state or ethnicity-based regionalism is weakening as a force in Assam. It needs stressing that the BJP is increasingly encroaching on the political space once controlled by the AGP or similar parties. The BJP’s major advantage is that the Congress, its strongest challenger, cannot afford to adopt an overly regional approach towards the ethnic/other problems of the troubled northeast.

Thus, it was no surprise to find Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, a once Congress leader who joined the BJP, boldly and repeatedly talking about ‘upholding and securing Assamiya interests and their well-being by carrying out a controversial delimitation of Assembly and parliamentary seats.

The BJP-run government’s earlier enthusiastic support for the badly mismanaged NRC fiasco, which cost the nation an estimated Rs 1200 crore, is another example of the BJP’s pandering to regional fears and demands.

Congress leaders in Assam, let alone those who were Chief Ministers among them, could neither match nor counter Sarma’s tactics. The party’s secular principles and political culture were and are entirely different from those of the BJP.

The state BJP, in the name of preventing the illegal infiltration into Assam from Bangladesh, was not merely doing its perceived duty by helping the NRC population survey, in the process it also swallowed up the political space once occupied by forces like the AGP or the AASU.

Going into the 2024 polls, it was relatively easy for Chief Minister Sarma, who succeeded in ensuring a steady flow of central investments for Assam, helped by the BJP’s big infrastructure development drive, to stave off the Congress challenge, which showed considerable determination in opposing the thrust of the BJP’s palpably anti-Muslim policies. It condemned the state government’s targeted bull-dozing drives against the poorest sections of the population.

There was both national and international adverse media/political reaction to certain tactics adopted during the NRC campaign, as well as the so-called “encounters” between the state police and criminals. On many occasions, the Guwahati High Court castigated official highhandedness.

The state unit of the Congress, trying to resist the BJP juggernaut with its limited resources and steadily depleting flock of supporters, strove to highlight the grievances of different depressed communities and groups inside and outside of the state assembly. But, as usual with Congress politics, there were several mutually bickering factions, while the Delhi-based High command hardly took much interest.

As elections approached, despite being the main opposition, the state Congress faced some bullying tactics from outstation parties, especially from the Bengal-based Trinamool Congress and the Delhi-based Aam Aadmi Party. Forging an effective state-level INDI-Alliance was difficult as both the TMC, and the AAP, demanded 5 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats each!

Even as the other parties made a strong pitch by announcing their own candidates and carrying out programmes without much coordination with the Congress, the Gandhi party went ahead with its colourless campaign.

The final results, however, showed that the state electorate had kept faith with the Congress in choosing a powerful opposition. The high command provided the much-needed support in the latter stages of the campaign.

The eventual results showed that both the BJP and the largely pro-establishment state media had underestimated the extent of resentment against some of the official policies and decisions. Commenting on the results, Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi, who won the Jorhat seat, noted that no one had really expected the Congress to win by over 100,000 votes in the Jorhat constituency, an area supposed to be a strong support base of the BJP.

Similarly, the massive victory notched up by Rakibul Hussain from Dhubri, over the redoubtable Badruddin Ajmal of the AIUDF, was nothing short of a game-changer. Hussain had been involved in an exchange of words with the Chief Minister over the battle for Dhubri. It was common knowledge in Assam that Ajmal was backed by the local BJP but he still suffered a huge defeat.

These results have led some Assam-based analysts to wonder whether Assam was showing signs of moving away from the pettiness of communal politics often associated with hardline BJP leaders and by outfits claiming to represent socially backward groups.

Assam Congressmen feel more confident as they face the future and begin preparations to fight the Assembly polls due next year. As state Congress leaders met to celebrate their success in Assam against all odds in their Guwahati party office, they resolved to co-operate better and renew efforts to do well in the Assembly polls.

For once, even the state BJP cannot ignore the opposition challenge. It is a wake-up call even as Sarma and his colleagues continue to celebrate victory in 11 out of 14 seats. As with the BJP in Delhi, the ruling party has been warned by the electorate.