Kalyani Shankar

The recent results of by-elections for 13 seats in various states are essential for understanding what people think of the major political parties. One month after the 2024 elections, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term, the INDIA bloc’s significant victory in securing ten of the 13 seats has shifted the country’s politics.

This positive result for the INDIA bloc could weaken the ruling coalition’s power.The BJP won 240 seats but fell short of the 272-majority mark in the recent Lok Sabha elections. As a result, the party had to seek the support of NDA allies, which could influence its policy decisions and lead to compromises to maintain the coalition. This situation raises concerns about the government’s stability.

A boost to the Opposition could create unpredictability within the ruling coalition.Despite securing 240 seats in last month’s Lok Sabha polls, the BJP fell short of the 272-majority mark. It had to seek the help of the NDA allies. This reliance could sway the BJP’s policy decisions.

The BJP may have to compromise on specific issues to maintain the coalition. There is also a shadow of uncertainty over the government’s stability. A substantial boost to the Opposition can shift the balance of power and create a sense of unease and unpredictability in the ruling coalition. The Election Commission conducts the by-polls when a legislative seat becomes vacant.

There could be many reasons for a vacant seat. It could be death, resignation, disqualification, or expulsion of a sitting member.Elections are held to fill empty seats when a member of Parliament resigns or dies. Only voters from the area can vote, and there is no party vote.

On Wednesday, by-elections were held for 13 assembly seats in Punjab (1), Himachal Pradesh (3), Uttarakhand (2), West Bengal (4), Madhya Pradesh (1), Bihar (1), and Tamil Nadu (1). The Congress, TMC, AAP, and DMK are some of the parties that put forward candidates in the by-elections to test their strength.

The INDIA bloc’s win significantly boosted the Opposition.They have been a crucial test for the INDIA bloc as it faced the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the first electoral battle after the Lok Sabha Elections 2024.

The regional chieftains in the Opposition performed exceptionally well. Trinamool Congress, a key player in the INDIA bloc, secured all four seats in Bengal, a significant victory. At the same time, the surging Congress won two seats each in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, further strengthening its position in these states.

The DMK won one seat, and AAP captured Jalandhar West. These diverse outcomes hint at potential shifts in power dynamics, adding a layer of uncertainty to the current political scenario. Also, the BJP securing only two seats and an independent candidate winning in Bihar add a layer of complexity.

Typically, the party in power wins the bye-election seat. The TMC, DMK, Congress, and Aam Admi Party controlled their states. For the TMC, the results were a shot in the arm just a month after it had bagged 29 parliamentary seats, up from 22 in 2019. In Uttarakhand and Bihar, things were different.

The candidates from the ruling parties – BJP and JD(U) – lost.Congress won two out of the three by-elections in Himachal. After the results, the party has 40 members again in the 68-member house. This will bring stability to our government.

Bye-elections are a crucial test for political parties and their popularity. Parties gauge public sentiment and assess their support base. They often use by-elections to test campaign strategies, influencing future elections.If the ruling party wins seats in the by-election, it could increase its overall number of seats and have more influence on the government’s stability and decision-making.

The BJP still needs to improve its performance despite investigating the reasons for its low number of seats in the Lok Sabha elections. This raises questions and potential strains within the party.

 There are speculations about a possible strain between the RSS and the BJP, which could negatively affect the RSS’s support for the party, adding to tension and uncertainty in the ruling coalition.

The strong performance of the INDIA bloc shows that power dynamics may be shifting. Despite their differences, this success is because the opposition parties continued to work together. Some analysts think that both factors led to their success.

The Opposition’s strong showing could weaken the ruling coalition’s power and strengthen the Opposition’s position.The future is difficult to predict at this stage. Winning and losing are part of the game in a democracy.

The impact of these events will be more precise in the upcoming assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana later this year. The INDIA bloc’s strong showing in the by-elections could strengthen the Opposition’s position in these forthcoming assembly polls. They will help determine whether the Opposition gains strength or weakens.

 (The writer is a popular columnist; views expressed are personal)