Harsha Kakar

The recently concluded NATO summit in Washington was all about Ukraine, China and the future of the organization. All participants were aware that the return of Trump could spell its doom. The joint statement defined its future role as, ‘Our commitment to defend one another and every inch of allied territory at all times, as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, is iron-clad. We are bound together by shared values: individual liberty, human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.’

To offset Trump’s major complaint of nations of NATO not spending enough on their own security, it mentioned, ‘two-thirds of allies have fulfilled their commitment of at least 2% of GDP annual defence spending. Defence expenditure by European Allies and Canada has grown by 18% in 2024, the biggest increase in decades.’

The fact is that Europe has finally comprehended what Trump had been insisting all along, that it would need to deal with its own threats. There was also a mention of deploying missiles and hypersonic weapons in Germany from 2026. This would worsen ties with Russia. However, the deployment would be determined by the next US administration.

On the Ukraine war, the statement read, ‘Russia bears sole responsibility for its war against Ukraine. Russia is responsible for deaths of thousands of civilians and has caused extensive damage to civilian infrastructure. Russia must immediately stop this war and completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its forces from Ukraine in line with UN General Assembly resolutions.’ These comments have been made repeatedly to no effect.

The summit promised additional military aid to Ukraine amounting to 40 billion Euros. It includes F 16’s being provided soon. It did not invite Ukraine to join NATO but hung a carrot by mentioning, ‘Ukraine’s future is in NATO.’ The Secretary General added that Ukraine’s membership would be considered once the war terminated.

The perception within NATO is that Russia will only stop in case its losses are unprecedented and its advance stalled. Can Ukraine, even with western weapons, make it happen, especially when it lacks sufficient manpower is unanswered. NATO fails to realize that there can be no pressure on authoritarian Putin to pull back. If it believes that Russian military power will be severely dented or its economy impacted, it is again incorrect.

Russia responded with its own warning. Its spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, mentioned NATO ‘has once again very clearly confirmed its essence. It is an alliance created in an era of confrontation with the aim of maintaining confrontation.’ He added that the NATO alliance was ‘constantly and incrementally moving towards Russian borders (by deploying missiles in Germany).’

Surprisingly, there was no mention of the Israel-Gaza conflict. There were comments on terrorism, which was largely a generalized statement. The only reference to the war in Gaza in the statement was ‘conflict, fragility and instability in Africa and the Middle East’ directly affects NATO security.’ The subject was also not raised by any member, including Turkey, which though commented that a direct confrontation with Russia should be avoided.

The summit statement accused China of supporting Russia in its war efforts. NATO called out China by mentioning, ‘The deepening strategic partnership between Russia and the PRC (People’s Republic of China) and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut and reshape the rules-based international order, are a cause for profound concern.’ This is a standard US statement.

What angered China was the warning that other measures, including economic, could be taken if it does not back down from supporting Russia. In this context, the statement mentioned, ‘The PRC cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation.’ The US has been insisting that Europe impose additional duties on Chinese Electric Vehicles, which are grabbing European markets.

NATO also accused North Korea and Iran of providing Russia with weaponry. There is hardly any further action it can take against these two already heavily sanctioned nations.

As per the NATO Secretary General, this was ‘the strongest message NATO allies have ever sent on China’s contributions to Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine.’ European nations have their own trade links with China. Can it provide a combined response is to be seen.

The organization also decided to challenge China collectively in the Indo-Pacific. On this subject, it mentioned, ‘The Indo-Pacific is important for NATO, given that developments in that region directly affect Euro-Atlantic security.

We welcome the continued contributions of our Asia-Pacific partners to Euro-Atlantic security.’ This implied partnering with Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia. This statement would bring relief to nations in the region, currently engaged in conflict with China.

The Chinese responded with its spokesperson mentioning, ‘We firmly reject and deplore these accusations and have lodged serious representations with NATO.’ It also claimed that the statement was ‘filled with Cold War mentality and belligerent rhetoric.’

There is no doubt that China has been the biggest gainer by the Ukraine conflict. It has the upper hand over Russia and as long as the conflict continues, NATO attention will remain fixed on Europe.

China conducted its latest military exercise around Taiwan coinciding with the NATO summit, possibly aware that it would come under fire in the summit. Taiwanese reports state that it detected over 65 Chinese military aircraft around the island.

Was China conveying that no matter what the US promises, it cannot intervene in Taiwan, in case it decides to launch an offensive. There was also increased Chinese naval activities in Japanese waters.

If Ukraine enhances the conflict into Russian territory, results could be far more devastating. This was the warning Putin has been conveying all along. It would have been highlighted in his discussion with the Hungarian PM, Viktor Orban, when he visited Moscow just prior to PM Modi and with the Turkish President at the SCO summit.

Ironically, the US desires that India push Putin to end the conflict, while NATO displays a confrontational approach, challenging Putin, doing just the opposite. The world’s supposedly most powerful institution, NATO, worked overtime to delay the visit of PM Modi to Russia only because it coincided with their 75th anniversary summit, indicating a serious lack of confidence in its own capabilities.

The author is Major General (Retd)