Ashok K Mehta

Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned in his Independence Day speech that India is worried about developments in Bangladesh, especially about the safety of Hindus and other minorities there. Promptly Professor Yunus head of Caretaker Administration called Modi to reassure him of their safety. The soft coup in Dhaka, the fourth in 53 years is almost wholly student-driven following Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina losing touch with her people and mounting economic distress.

The killing of 200 and more protestors, many students, was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. COAS Gen Waqur Uz Zaman was left with only one choice: order Hasina to flee giving her 45 minutes.

The General must have foreseen this contingency as “the day after” scenario. Otherwise, the speed and orderly nature of the transition could not have been possible. The sentiment on the street is anti-Hasina with the Sheikh Mujib legacy she nurtured of freedom from Pakistan through a liberation war aided by India would not have been so bitterly desecrated.

Anti-India feelings largely stem not only from India’s blind support for Hasina despite the loss of democratic credentials but also some grievances that Bangladesh has nursed mainly like BSF firing on the border, not sharing Teesta waters and disallowing use of the Siliguri corridor.

Most of all, they were peeved by Home Minister Amit Shah calling Bangladeshis ‘insects’ and loud advocacy of CAA/NRC. Giving refuge to Hasina indefinitely could increase the anger against India. Critical strategic interests are at stake.Much has been written about the events of July and August in Bangladesh. Astonishing is the importance attached to conspiracy theories: naming the US, and CIA coveting St Martin Island which is also claimed by Myanmar and other usual suspects, Pakistani, ISI and China.

While some of these players will certainly fish in troubled water, it is the role of Islamists and jihadi organisations India must fear. Even though a Nobel laureate, liberal democrat and regionalist, Mohammad Yunus is to lead the caretaker administration has said he will be guided by the students and their leaders Nahid Islam and Asif Mahmud.

The mystery in this drama is the extent to which Gen Zaman, a relative of Sheikh Hasina, was involved in the coup. No regime change has occurred in Bangladesh without the Army either facilitating or executing it.

Sheikh Hasina’s greatest achievement was transforming Bangladesh once a basket case into the fastest-growing economy in South Asia with human development indices surpassing all regional countries except Sri Lanka. Its garment industry was world-class till periodic protests and strikes over wages and COVID began to wreck it.

Bangladesh grew at a steady 6.5 per cent for two decades with a per capita income of USD 2600, much higher than India’s. But its growth story ended after it sought IMF assistance of USD 4.76 bn and inflation crossed 10 per cent.

Trade with India had grown phenomenally to nearly USD 18 bn. An FTA  in the works for a long, had it materialised, Bangladesh’s exports would have risen 182 per cent. The largest tourist population comes from Bangladesh giving a fillip to medical tourism.  Defence relations have enhanced miraculously: it is a story of turning foe into friend.

This is quite extraordinary, given that Bangladesh used to portray India as an enemy in its war games. India has granted a $500bn LoC for defence purchases but in Bangladesh’s layered defence procurement system controlled by Armed Forces Division once led by Gen Zaman, India is at the lowest level for consideration for hardware with China topping the list at A level.

Aircraft, submarines, tanks, artillery and other equipment are mainly of Chinese origin. Bangladesh is a nation in disarray being led by student leaders whose wishes are being promulgated by the Caretaker Administration. India is faced with a challenging conundrum in the country it helped in its birth.

The golden period in bilateral relations when India’s interests were being suitably addressed is bound to change given the fact that the new regime is targeting Sheikh Hasina and everyone associated with her or the Awami League.

That the Bangladesh Army will become the conduit for a near-normal relationship is what India must hope for. Geography and economic logic also suggest that for Bangladesh to meet the challenge of its economic distress India’s assistance will be necessary.

Dhaka will not forget how New Delhi bailed out Colombo after its default in 2022 and the student protest movement which could not transform Sri Lanka’s polity.

Former only Hindu Chief Justice of Bangladesh Surendra Kumar Sinha who was sacked by Hasina said last week that everything that has happened in Bangladesh in the last few days has been unconstitutional and he cited the various changes brought about by the Caretaker Administration. In a revolution or a coup the constitution is one of several casualties.

The Administration has said that institutional reforms will include reviewing the constitution before any election can take place. All this will take time.  It is the early days of regime change with the future clouded with uncertainty. India’s new geo-political challenge is shaping and it must now begin engaging relevant stakeholders. What it will do about Sheikh Hasina and Awami League will be one of many challenges. 

(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal)