This article of INFA Editor Late Mr Inder Jit as ‘Rewind’ written in February 1990, during Assembly elections in 8 States then. With elections underway in five States now and a nagging uncertainty about the outcome for the big players, the article provides an interesting insight and raises some questions, similar in these times.

Today’s poll to the Assemblies in eight States and one Union Territory is certain to prove crucial in more ways than one. It could well end up in recasting the horoscopes of the principal actors on the political stage and in redrawing the political map of India. Various credible crystal gazers, currently in great demand, are agreed on one point: the mini-general election is certain to throw the country’s politics into the melting pot. Many questions are, therefore, being asked: Will the outcome give greater strength to Mr. V.P. Singh and further erode Mr. Rajiv Gandhi’s position? Or, will it enable Mr. Gandhi to survive as the unrivalled leader of the Congress-I … and fight back? Will the Congress-I and the Janata Dal continue in their present forms or will they split? Will Congressmen in both camps choose to bury the hatchet out of “historic necessity” and come together as a minority Government? Or, will there be a coalition Government?

If Manipur is any indication, the Congress-I is in for bigger trouble. Manipur was widely regarded as a “sure win” for the party. The Congress-I triumph in the State was expected to give it a much-needed shot in the arm. It was intended to induce its traditional supporters and the fence sitters to pause and ponder. This seems unlikely. In fact, most crystal gazers are now inclined to go along more than ever before with the National Front and the BJP in regard to their poll claims. The Janata Dal talks confidently of forming the Government on its own in Orissa and Bihar and the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh. Further, the Janata Dal expects to head a coalition Government in Gujarat with the help of the BJP. The BJP hopes to head a coalition Government in Rajasthan with the aid of the Janata Dal. Both the parties concede primacy to the Congress-I only in Maharashtra. Here, too, they now expect to do much better. The two gave the ruling Congress-I good chance two months ago. They now give it only a slight edge over the Opposition.

Both the National Front and the BJP base their claims on their record of the past three months — and the overall image. Most people, including erstwhile critics and Doubting Thomases, are generally satisfied with Mr. V.P. Singh’s performance. True, the Punjab and Kashmir problems are nowhere near the desired solution. True also, Mr. V.P. Singh Government handled the Governors’s issue clumsily and is carrying forward the discredited spoils system. Not a few ask: “How is the new Government better or different?” Nevertheless, most voters are prepared to give the V.P. Singh Government time. They also underline one basic fact: Mr. V.P. Singh is not the master of all he surveys. At one stage, the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid issue had pushed up a big question mark over the popular support for the two parties. The postponement of the Ramshilanyas by four months has helped both the Janata Dal and the BJP. One is assured the continued support of the Muslim voters, as reflected in the public appeal by the Shahi Imam of Delhi, and the other of the Hindu voters.

The Congress-I, for its part, is down but not out. First and foremost, it is still confident of forming the Government in Maharashtra. Some prominent Congress-I men, such as Mr. N.K. Tripude, Dr. Rafiq Zakaria, and Mrs Shalini Tai, have no doubt quit. However, all these persons are only big names in the media. They have hardly any base. Second, the Opposition, too, is riven with dissension and rebellion. This is expected to prompt the voters to choose Mr. Sharad Pawar, a man they know. The Congress-I concedes defeat in Orissa and Gujarat, notwithstanding the bold front tactically put up by Mr. J.B. Patnaik, Mr. Madhavasinh Solanki and others. At the same time, it hopes to do a lot better than expected in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh. The reason? Multi-corner contests. In addition, Dr. Jagannath Mishra is said to have mobilized greater muscle power in Bihar, a State where brawn still counts. In Himachal, the considerable Rajput vote is said to have swung in favour of Mr. Virbhadra Singh.

Mr. Gandhi is certain to be in big trouble if Congress-I expectations go awry. Discontent within the party has mounted in the last three months as seldom before. Most members unhesitatingly express their resentment against him. They feel that their leader has neither learnt any lesson from the recent debacle nor forgotten anything. The party has not met even once for an agonizing appraisal of the Lok Sabha poll. He continues to be largely unavailable to partymen (an old and bitter complaint) and, what is more, is seen as being surrounded by “his coterie of cronies”, to quote a senior Congress-I leader. A Congress-I Chief Minister was unable to meet Mr. Gandhi for even five minutes during an extended two-day stay in Delhi. Further, he and his hand-picked spokesmen have not helped his image by their astonishing obsession with petty politics and “Government bashing”. With what result? One hears for the first time open talk in the Central Hall for Parliament of “changing Rajiv” and of bringing in a new party president.

Not just that. Some Congress-I leaders devoted to Nehru and Indira Gandhi are today stridently talking of the need to clean up the Congress-I through shudhikaran. In fact, they have been busy for some time now in mobilizing opinions against Mr. Rajiv Gandhi. Some 5000 copies of Mr. Kamlapathi Tripathi’s “anti-Rajiv letter” in Hindi and another 2000 in English have been circulated to prominent Congress-I men all over the country. The veteran leader recently advocated in this letter the need to enforce the rule of one person one post. These leaders would, therefore, like Mr. Rajiv Gandhi to give up the office of the Congress-I President and concentrate on his job as the Leader of the Opposition. Importantly, the Bangalore conclave of the Congress-I leaders in the south has not daunted them — nor their renewed commitment to Mr. Gandhi. Said one leader from the north: “The conclave call is only a desperate bid to revamp Rajiv’s image as a vote catcher. We are going to lose in all the States, except perhaps Maharashtra. Either, Congress wants to survive or it does not…”

Significantly, the anti-Rajiv talk does not stop at shudhikaran. It is presented as a package deal” first shudhikaran, then ekikaran. (“The Congress-I should not only be cleansed but true Congressmen must also be brought together as the Indian National Congress”, explained one leader. “Remember, the Indira Congress was declared by the country’s highest court to be the Indian National Congress. Yet it still continues to call itself Congress-I.”) The new Congress-I President, it is proposed, should be chosen by some 500 to 550 members of the existing AICC, elected last in 1973, since the entire process from the grassroots would take many months to complete. (Normally the AICC has some 700 to 750 members, who are chosen by the PCCs which, in turn, are elected by the DCCs.) It is further suggested that the AICC should then elect half the Working Committee (the other half is nominated by the President) as also the 7-member Parliamentary Board. Meanwhile, the coterie around Mr. Gandhi is not sitting pretty. It is formulating its counter strategy, which is expected to be announced soon.

The National Front and its principal partner, the Janata Dal, are not without their share of troubles. Mr. Chandra Shekhar continues to be embittered by the “dirty trick” played on him regarding the election of Mr. V.P. Singh. Not a few apprehend that he may try to do a Charan Singh. (Mr. Chandra Shekhar has chosen not to contradict a report of his meeting with Mr. Gandhi.) They, however, forget, that Mr. Chandra Shekhar is not Mr. Charan Singh. What is more, Mr. Rajiv Gandhi has shown that he is not Indira Gandhi. Mr. Arun Nehru, too, is reported to have met Mr. Gandhi and the two are stated to have decided that “the clan must stick together”. Mr. Nehru, I am told by a top Janata Dal leader, has dismissed the report as “baseless”. Nevertheless, life within the Janata Dal and the National Front is no longer flowing smoothly. Stress and strains are said to have developed among some members, thanks to feudal intrigue and the BJP card played calculatedly by those determined to exploit the antipathy of the Socialists against the RSS and create fissures.

One thing, however, stands out in the scenario about to open. Mr. V.P. Singh continues to enjoy the goodwill of his Cabinet colleagues. For the first time in years, Ministers are functioning as they should. They have been given full freedom to manage their portfolios, barring policy issues. Even his critics in the top Congress-I echelons concede that the new Prime Minister has shown “unsuspected qualities as a politician and as a leader”. In fact, this has encouraged not a few among Congress-I MPs to take note of the increasing pressures being publicly mounted on the V.P. Singh Government by the Leftists and the BJP and say, “Why should we leave V.P. Singh to the mercies of the Left and of the BJP. After all we belong to the same Congress culture…..”  Some top Janata Dal leaders have consequently told me: “Wait for a while. The Congress-I will surely split in our favour.” This is stoutly denied by the Congress-I leaders. All in all, today’s poll could well prove to be a time-bomb ticking away for both parties and personalities.—INFA