Onkareshwar Pandey

Sheikh Hasina’s resignation after weeks of violent protests in Bangladesh has created a power vacuum that various political factions, including Islamist groups, may seek to exploit. The current unrest in Bangladesh stems from multiple factors, including high unemployment, unjustified job reservations, election controversies, and the authoritarian approach of the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government.

The mass uprising of Bangladeshi students, which started last month in July 2024, against job quotas turned violent following a government crackdown and attacks by ruling party-linked groups. The unrest escalated with widespread demands for change, although the Supreme Court scrapped the quota system.

The government’s severe response, including curfews, internet blackouts, and shoot-on-sight orders, which led to deadly clashes between demonstrators and security forces, resulting in nearly 300 deaths by August 4, 2024, could not save the authoritarian Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government.

Finally, Bangladesh Awami League Leader Sheikh Hasina, took her flight into exile which ended her 15-year second stint in power. She ruled the country for 20 of the last 30 years as the leader of the political movement inherited from her father who was assassinated with most of his family in a 1975 coup.

A group of military officers behind a coup assassinated her father, Sheikh Mujib Rahman, the first leader of independent Bangladesh, along with his entire family on August 15, 1975. Hasina’s political journey, like her country, began with this blood bath.

Hasina lived for years in exile in India after the assassination, then made her way back to Bangladesh and took over the Awami League. However, the country’s military rulers had her in and out of house detention throughout the 1980s.

She became prime minister for the first time after general elections in 1996, following a decades-long power struggle with former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, the chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), now ailing and under house arrest.

Often accusing the opposition BNP of courting hard-line extremists and branding it a terrorist party, Hasina has been positioning herself as a moderate and secular leader in her country. Conversely, Zia’s BNP claims the Awami League uses oppressive tactics to maintain power. The two women alternated in leading the country for years in a bitter rivalry that polarized Bangladesh.

With a legacy of trauma and strategic diplomatic balancing, Hasina’s tenure faces mounting criticism over democratic freedoms and press suppression. Her government has been accused of using harsh measures to stifle dissent, shrink press freedoms, and curtail civil society, creating a polarized political environment, with limited space for democratic discourse and peaceful protest. When the human rights groups cited forced disappearances of critics—the government denied all such allegations.

The unrest has its roots in the 2011 constitutional amendment removing neutral caretaker governments, which the opposition deems essential for fair elections. Since then, the Hasina government has secured multiple controversial victories, including the 2014 and 2018 elections, which were marred by allegations of rigging and opposition crackdowns.

Significant events such as the 2013 Shahbagh protests and the Rana Plaza collapse that killed over 1,000 people, highlighted deep-seated issues within the country.

On January 5, 2014, PM Hasina’s Awami League won a second term in an election boycotted by the main opposition, leading to political unrest and violence in January 2015 due to unmet demands from the BNP. In 2018 again, the Awami League secured a third consecutive term amid vote-rigging allegations.

Despite appearing to have tightened her grip over the administration, resentment was brewing. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 caused economic hardships and a cost of living crisis.

In December 2021, the US sanctioned Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion and officials for human rights abuses, accusing them of involvement in hundreds of disappearances and extrajudicial killings since 2009 reflecting international concern over governance practices.

In 2022, Bangladesh saw 7.2% GDP growth, but wealth disparities widened, with the wealthiest 10% controlling 41% of income. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated economic hardships, leading to a cost of living crisis. Despite economic growth, wealth disparities have widened, fueling discontent.

Resentment grew despite Hasina’s tightened control.  Following a massive opposition rally in October, an unprecedented crackdown saw over 25,000 BNP members arrested, thousands more on the run and at least five members dying in prison before the January 2024 elections.

The BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami were banned, resulting in at least 20 deaths and nearly 300 buses torched. The BNP demanded a judicial investigation into the deaths. New York-based Human Rights Watch estimated that at least 10,000 opposition supporters had been arrested since the October 28, 2023 rally. The January 2024 election further deepened the crisis.

Hasina’s fourth consecutive term in office, secured through a controversial January 2024 election boycotted by the opposition and condemned by international observers, has been marred by serious allegations of rigging and political suppression. Her party Awami League won 222 of the 299 contested seats. Independent candidates

took 62 seats, the Jatiya Party, the third largest, took 11, and three smaller parties won three seats. The result in one seat remained undeclared, and the election for another was postponed due to a candidate’s death. The voter turnout was a low 41.8%, further highlighting the controversy and dissatisfaction surrounding the election.

The US and the UK condemned the election, stating it was neither free nor fair and expressing concern over the arrests of opposition members and reports of electoral irregularities.

Last month in July 2024, Bangladeshi students launched mass protests against job quotas that reserve one-third of civil service posts for veterans’ descendants. The protests turned violent following a government crackdown and attacks by ruling party-linked groups. Although the Supreme Court scrapped the quota system, unrest escalated with widespread demands for change.

The government’s severe response, including curfews, internet blackouts, and shoot-on-sight orders, led to deadly clashes between demonstrators and security forces, resulting in nearly 300 deaths by August 4, 2024.

Unemployment played a significant factor in the current uprising in Bangladesh. With nearly 32 million young people out of work or education in a population of 170 million, unemployment among educated youth is alarmingly high, with around 800,000 unemployed graduates in 2022, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

This demographic bulge, once a potential asset, is turning into a liability. Despite being one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, primarily driven by the booming garments sector, Bangladesh has seen a recent slowdown since the Covid-19 pandemic which severely impacted the economy, particularly the ready-made garments sector, which accounts for over 80% of export earnings.

High inflation at around 10% per annum and dwindling dollar reserves have eroded the purchasing power of ordinary citizens. The slow pace of recovery and insufficient job growth in the private sector has led to widespread frustration and disillusionment among the youth.

Finally, after weeks of protests, the 76-year-old Hasina resigned on Monday, August 5, and fled the country for her safety at the insistence of her family, confirmed by her son SajeebWazed Joy. Hasina was “so disappointed that after all her hard work, for a minority to rise against her,” Joy said. She would not attempt to mount a political comeback, he added.

Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced Hasina’s resignation and has assured the formation of an interim government soon. He held talks with leaders of major political parties—excluding Hasina’s long-ruling Awami League—and expected to soon meet President Mohammed Shahabuddin to discuss the way ahead.

Tarique Rahman exiled acting chairman of the opposition BNP, expressed his happiness over the resignation of PM Hasina, saying, “Her resignation proves the power of the people. Together, let’s rebuild Bangladesh into a democratic and developed nation, where the rights and freedoms of all people are protected.”

The current unrest in Bangladesh might continue until free and fair elections are held. The interim government will have the immediate task of controlling the violence, which is now spreading and turning anti-minorities. India will have to remain vigilant as it shares long porous borders with Bangladesh. In this volatile environment, the resurgence of anti-India sentiments and Islamic fundamentalism could significantly hinder Bangladesh’s progress and regional stability.

(The writer is a senior journalist, political commentator, author and thought leader)